Point one is that the Taliban cannot be trusted, and Pakistan cannot be trusted. Keeping Afghanistan as a puppet state is one of Pakistan's primary goals. Taqiyya, lying to kafirs to advance Islam, is encouraged in Islam.

Point two is that it is hideously expensive to wage an American style war in Afghanistan. All weapons and ammunition are shipped to Diego Garcia and then airlifted to Afghanistan. Other supplies can be shipped to Karachi and then trucked over the Pakistani road net (with much pilferage). It can also be shipped to Russia and then use the creaking Russian rail network to Afghanistan's border. Then it's off loaded to Afghan trucks.

What I think will happen is the Taliban will take over Afghanistan at Pakistan's behest. Pakistan is a client state of China. The USGS reported that Afghanistan had a trillion dollars of untapped mineral resources. This report was issued in Bush 2's administration. I think China will move into Afghanistan for those resources. They will do to the Afghans what they are doing to to the Uighurs. They will be able to do this because they're a dictatorship, because they have 1.5 billion people, because they're close and because they'll have direct rail links.

In the end, America's real strategic interest in Afghanistan is to prevent it from becoming another unhindered terrorist base. I think China will accomplish that.