This podcast is pretty long compared to the real amount of information, but Mr. Pool's approach is interesting. The basic idea is that people are tired of the COVID-19 policies of the ruling elite. They realize that the damage inflicted by the policies has been worse than the damage of the disease would have been if we'd taken no preventative measures. He believes that this factor could be driving people to vote for Trump even though they won't say that to pollsters. If he's right, then the election could swing much more strongly to Trump than what anyone can foresee.
He doesn't raise the possibility that people may not go all the way to the point of voting for Trump but may just stay home. He raises the possibility of people staying home out of fear, but I see something different. I could see people staying home as a form of protest against the whole situation.
The other point that he doesn't make but I think is important is that many of the policies have made things worse. I believe the doctors who say that our immune systems are healthiest when they are exercised moderately. Living a "boy in a plastic bubble" lifestyle doesn't give us healthy immune systems. Instead, that lifestyle weakens our immune systems. In that case, the "second wave" may be exacerbated by the fact that months of "boy in the plastic bubble" lifestyle has weakened everyone's immune system to the point that both COVID-19 and other infections are more severe. Doctors have said that many of the COVID-19 deaths happen because people are attacked by other infections while they are weakened from COVID-19. If that's true and isolation has weakened our immune systems anyway, then the policies of the past six months have created conditions for a more severe second wave.