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LINK A grim theory predicted the protests and pandemic crises of 2020

Article discusses a book published in 1997 called 'The Fourth Turning' which amazingly predicts the crisis we are in today. The book is not like the predictions of Nostradamus but addresses the cyclical nature of time and history. Joseph Ben Stewart on Timcast IRL gives an overview of the book's predictions and events from the mid to late 2000 decade to current events of 2021. I'm currently reading this very interesting book so thought I'd bring it to the sites members.

The first video is a shorter synopsis and the 2nd a longer more in depth conversation addressing 'The Fourth Turning' and current events.

dd54 8 Mar 6
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0

What a load of rubbish... talk about grasping at straws and cherry picking individual words... the context is not the present context of that of the recent past events they are referring to even. Give me a break.

2

"The crisis we are in today" is NOT a pandemic of viral disease. It is the rapidly growing demands of the people to have government take over responsibility for their daily lives.
Feed me, house me, give me entertainment, keep me warm and dry in winter and cool in summer. Give me medical care and education (don't know why - no one seems to use it)...keep me safe from mean people, physical harm and emotional anguish. Protect me from myself!

THIS is the real crisis.

COVID is nothing but a means to an end and people happily fall in line with gov't orders.

iThink Level 9 Mar 6, 2021

It didn't help that in killing off God intellectuals killed freewill.

@wolfhnd good observation

2

Ray Dalio wrote a book on world economics and some predictions about where China will fit in (or rather dominate as the next world power) in the next several decades. Some might find it rather interesting to read "The Changing World Order"

[principles.com]

We can only hope that history repeats and they return to internal conflict.

@wolfhnd "History repeats" - the only thing that moves slower than the cycles of liberty and slavery is the movements of glaciers and tectonic plates.
You and I - and everyone alive today will be long gone before anything like the first 200 years of American history comes along again. USA rose from the ashes of Royal and feudal dictatorships, war, disease, famine...right now the age of American prosperity and relative peace is dying. It is simultaneously being supplanted by a sociopolitical ideology that can only lead to the rebirth of feudal dictatorships, privation and oppression of the people etc.
The age of American Prosperity is all but over. Be glad you won't be around to see how bad things will get before it comes around again.

@wolfhnd Not bloody likely.

@wolfhnd, @iThink feudal dictatorships of the Technocrats. We are mere human capital, expendable at a whim. Resources is the name of the game now and eugenics its engine. I really am very happy to be too old to see this come to fruition. I just pray for my son and grandchildren who, sadly, are indoctrinated to welcome this new age ... blind to the costs they will pay in liberty.

@toronto_Georgia

I don't know, I have a friend who worked in China and when I argued they would replace us he said the entire society was ready to implode. Who knows most experts seem as confused as the rest of us.

2

I think the book they are discussing is correct in a lot of ways regarding cycles but I don't believe they are particularly generational. I think they are more political/economic cycles. There are times of abundance and stability. These are times of production and the creation of abundance. This then gets upset by political interference where certain people feel there is a need to direct the abundance. Maybe to themselves. Maybe more evenly or equitably in society. Maybe to certain groups. This is political interference in the economy for perhaps philanthropic reasons or perhaps, although it would never be admitted to, greedy reasons.

In times of scarcity, when there is not abundance enough to fund large governments, people will tend to work things out among themselves and, instead of government, are dependent more upon each other. Trust would be a valuable commodity in these periods. It should be in all periods but governments, tyrants and rulers tend to destroy it to intolerable levels.

Essentially, there needs to be abundance before there is political interference. Then a period of scarcity will occur because of the political interference. The economics of the time is the largest driving factor in these cycles. When there is nothing for Kings, Tyrants and governments to suck up they are generally more socially benevolent. The variation in lengths of cycles are influenced by certain factors, such as technological breakthroughs, political ideological experimentation, power restructuring, educational standards.

I'll just mention one more thing and that is that a socialistic society has proven in experience to last about three generations or ninety years. There are factors that can prolong it but it does require negation of the individual, oppression of change and an omniscient presence to ensure the suppression of individual expression. Scarcity is the prevailing condition. If there is a central authority the point where abundance is exhausted is when the central authority collapses. Margaret Thatcher made note of it in her oft quoted statement, "Socialism works until it runs out of other people's money."

There may be other things that will occur on a grosser level but they are probably out of the realm of being human. In which case, scarcity and abundance are not so relevant.

2

There is nothing remarkable about the four horsemen, conquest, war, famine, and death. Famine and disease often accompanying war and they can also cause war as nations scramble for resources.

An interesting side note is that sometimes nations or more exactly cultures are focused internally and war with themselves. That has been the case in China during most of it's history and in Europe from the end of the Roman empire until the colonial period. One of the predictable outcomes of opening China during the Nixon administration was that their energy would be increasingly focused externally. The idea that the culture would be transformed, naive.

Cultures are never transformed by contact with the external world or even the adoption of alien ideas. Russia went from czar to Stalin without transforming it's basic brutal nature and Putin continues the tradition. China went from emperor to Mao without changing it's brutal nature. The West went from Roman imperialism to the imperialism of industrial states even adopting the architecture and institutions such as a Senate. Even completely subjugated people like American natives have keep large parts of their culture.

If you want to know what China will do now that their focus has shifted to the outside world look at their history. They largely absorbed and even genetically replaced the Mongols. I have little doubt they have similar plans for the rest of the world even if it isn't a completely conscious process.

The official doctrine of the Chinese party is that they are a different species. If people don't find that frightening think Nazis. Then think how irrational Hitler's plans were. The Chinese are more dangerous because they are patient. They are spreading through out the world and taking their culture with them. Ask their historical neighbors how that works out, everywhere they settled in the East they were more financially successful than the natives.

Cultures are like organisms. They don't have a mind exactly. They replicate themselves until something stops them. Either disease or external conflict.

A song comes to mind "we didn't start the fire, it's been burning since the world's been turning".

@Haraldson

I hadn't looked at it that way but I see your point. Nobody holds the lion responsible for eating the lamb. If our goal is to stop conflict it doesn't help if we paint each other as evil.

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