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Why was the popular vote so close in the US presidential election?

Regardless of the eventual winner, one thing that stood out was how close the popular vote was. What does it imply that the polls, predicting a Biden win with up to 10% more votes, were wrong. Why were many voters afraid to tell even an anonymous pollster that they preferred Trump over Biden?

What we choose to believe the reason to be greatly impacts how we, as a country, proceed.

  • We could choose to believe that the Trump supporters are simply closet racists, sexists, and bigots who secretly want to support one of their own - doing so reaffirms the narrative that America is a terrible place.

  • Or, we could choose that they were not buying the narrative that America is fundamentally flawed with racism, sexism, and other forms of bigotry .

  • Or, we could choose that they simply believed that Trump was a better choice despite the best efforts of mainstream news, social media, and the entertainment industry to highlight his flaws - factual or not.

Especially for Biden/Harris supporters, how to move forward really depends on what was learned from this election. If it's the first option, perhaps Trump supporters simply need more CRT (aka, racial sensitivity) and similar training? If it's the second, perhaps it's a time to re-examine some of the assumptions of the progressive movement? If it's the third, perhaps these organizations should try harder?

What do you think?

Why did Trump get more votes than the polls predicted?

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Admin 8 Nov 5
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26 comments

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18

All you need to do is give a cursory glance at the Biden/Harris rallies and you know that whatever turned out their vote, it was neither of them. I would say that the motivating factor was Trump, and the fact that their votes were against him. “Anyone but Trump.”

I happen to like Trump, not just his policies, but him—his style, his rough unfinished approach, the fact that he comes away from every skirmish with blood on his fists. I love that he’s not Paul Ryan, or Mitt Romney, or John McCaine, or any of the Bushes, or Bob Dole, or any of the other spineless wimps who’ve sold us out for decades. I suspect this is a major factor behind his support.

I don’t think you can separate Trump’s style from his policies. It takes balls to go after the results he’s realized. He has stood up to the world snd he’s done pretty damn good. He’s taken every hit his enemies here have thrown at him and he’s still standing. Could a Jeb Bush have stood up for a populist agenda, and weathered the resulting storm? Nevermind that Jeb Bush is a globalist and is diametrically opposed to the very fact of Trump’s existence. The msn has no balls.

I’m not convinced the vote is all that close. Clearly the expected Blue Tsunami never materialized. There are serious anomalies with a lot of the ballot counts. That’s not opinion or conspiracy think, it’s happening and it’s verifiable.

I’ll wait until the courts weigh in before committing myself to an opinion about that question.

Something about having more than 100% turnout and voting overwhelmingly for Biden, doesn’t set very well with me.
Having over 200% of Registered Votes turn out is beyond guesswork ..

Spot on.

I was passed this video on today. I have absolute faith in our FEARLESS Leader, but I'm really not sure about the vid I was asked to watch. I'd really like to hear your thoughts on it.

[l.facebook.com]

@torontogal4388
Thanks for the link. As of 1am, I could only find it on Check The News as the host was watching it for the first time.

A few thoughts: Steve Pieczenik has been around for a long time and his resume is real. No one from FOX or the other alphabet’s will give him a platform, but he always comes at an issue from an insider’s perspective.

My point, that I’ve been making everywhere I can, is that it’s already beyond belief or verification. It doesn’t need to be verified (although I suspect that some portion at least is true). It’s already a thing. It’s real. That’s how psyops work. That’s what Pieczenik’s career was all about.

Let’s say you’ve been going two days without sleep, cranked up on meth, burning Trump ballots and breaking out blanks from the stash that got delivered at 3 am on election night and filling them in for Biden. And then you hear about watermarks. WHAT!?

So after you pull a Jerry Nadler in your pants, what are you going to do? And that’s the genius of a psyop: you have no idea what to do. But when the precinct boss comes through and tells you to pick up the pace, who do you believe? And how likely has it become that a prison cell just opened up with your name on it? Imagination and fear are valuable allies in a psyop. And then you hear that AG Barr has authorized federal prosecutors to bring armed agents with them to investigate voter fraud...

Who do you think’s gonna flip?

@Edgework LOL, both informative and funny as all get out. Thanks Hon.

As I read all the various comments and yes, click on links there's always something that confirms a statement that Trump said, that being he would "Drain the swamp". It's quite apropos in reality because that is what has been accomplished, he showed America and even the world how bought and paid for governing body's are. That even bothered several Republicans as well but it was what many wanted to see happen. Even here in Canada our Liberals have been removing more and more rights, no different than the Democrats. I had read/watch reports similar to those of torontogals4388's link and thought how poetic justice was served.

And after reading dd54's post I searched it to better understand it and found similar things had happened in Canada back in 1998 under Chretien. I'm hoping after all is said and done Trump is President it will piss off Trudeau to make even bigger blunders.

10

For the questions asked in the poll my thoughts are these: I do not believe Trump is any more racist than anyone else. The two biggest appeals for me are he is an outsider, and he is more America first. You can agree or disagree. I have no desire to argue the point it is simply how I feel about it.
Is America flawed? It most certainly is. I see things going on that I don't like and cause concern, and a whole lot more of it this past year. Would I want to live or have been born anywhere else in the world? Not a chance, I love this country and despite its flaws I still think its an amazing place to be.
IMO, Trump has not gotten a fair shake in the media, in Hollywood, not even in government. Has he brought some of this on himself? Perhaps so. Do I believe every Trump conspiracy going around? No, but I would certainly like to see some of them looked at harder and some questions answered. I do believe he and people around him have been targeted. I also think removing Trump from office, now more so than ever, solves a lot of problems for people.
You are welcome to have differing opinions, some of these things we will never get any real answers to so tossing around opinions will be about as good as it gets.

9

Trump support has grown because not everyone is dumb enough to fall for all that negative propaganda.

8

It is because if you're not with the left and claim or say what they want you to you become a target. Being a target can range from anything from getting yelled and screamed at by even your own family members to having personal attacks, job loss or threats of your house being burned down. Why would anybody openly say they are a Trump supporter if any of that is possible. The silent majority is real, The left has created it.

7

The lawless Democrat establishment of the Deep State and the super rich 1 percenters have been cheating not just in this election.

6

Polling has gone wacky since the phone system switched from landlines to cell phones. Most people only respond to people they recognize. I was dodging sporadic polling calls for about a month.

The 'Shy Trump voter' is a very real, and very large, category.

Polls are a commercial product, sold to media organizations that already believe in 'Orange Man Bad.' Polls that support this thesis are readily accepted, are worldview affirming to them. They will be widely disseminated, and then reinforce the Blue Wave assumptions.

The Blue Wave expectation provides perfect cover for finding bags full of Biden-only ballots that were 'misplaced.' Wouldn't you expect whole precincts full of exclusively Democratic voters in a Blue Wave election? I don't know if the polls were a premeditated deception, but they did provide cover.

Great point. Caller ID has altered things a lot.

6

For myself, it was a mix of not buying the narrative and believing Trump was the better choice. Regardless who wins, beliefs to the contrary exist and I'm not sure how we move forward.

So, the popular vote being so close is not entirely surprising to me. Considering the Democratic campaign having been on the extreme end, in addition to conservatives, there were a great deal many more traditional Democrats and liberals that found it a bit of a turn off as well. It's simply too far left for a lot of people. So, less of a reflection of "love of Trump" and more of a "the Democratic party has gone crazy". If they had picked a stronger, consistent, and grounded candidate other then Biden, who I believe is still more moderate than most, then they may have had a better chance.

Interpreting the popular vote by MSM has been as out of touch as their coverage of Trump supporters. There are a great deal many people who love our country and find it worth defending. So, when MSM "sides" with those that are tearing it down, speaking disrespectfully of our police, and echoing the message that America was never great, while also showing a great deal of support for Biden, it is a deterrent to voters who don't agree with their perspective.

Yes, there are a great deal of people who whole heartedly love Trump. I find that actually very admirable. I'm, often times, overly skeptical of particular devotions. However, the way MSM has spoken so disgustingly of the "MAGA hats" over the last few years is appalling. I don't recall any such slander when there was groups of Obama lovers. Loving your president is not an "ill" that needs to be cured.

The MSM continued lack of self awareness is striking. I, for one, am getting tired of the double standard of what is considered good or bad civil unrest. Months and months of unending BLM protests spun positively. Trump rally headlines being "super spreaders". Riots spun as "mostly peaceful". Blue lives matter protests shown as "dangerous and racist". NFAC and other armed black militias barely make the news. Proud Boys and other (deemed "white supremacist" ) militias are talked about non stop as being "threatening and aggressive". Now there's the "good" election protesters and "bad" election protesters. It's frustrating.😕

4

2+2=5

4

Trump was the better choice, but at the same time the polls were wrong because, let's face it they are the most archaic way to test a sample of voters. 1st, who is sitting at home, answering their phone when an unknown number shows up on the screen? 2nd, why sample such a small number? We live in an age of technology, and cold calling a handful of people is the best they could do? Come on man!

Very good points, which raise an intetesting question. Given how much our world has changed, especially considering the impact of technology, are outdated methods of polling employed because they allow pollsters to manipulate the outcome?

4

I know little about who funds polling organizations, what kinds of questions they ask, how they select people they poll, or how honest they are with the data they collect. So, as usual, I look at a simple explanation for why they were so far off. Think about it...if the polls were miles apart from the anti-Trump narratives the MSM has been ramming down our throats for 4 years, how would the MSM and pollsters explain that? I'm not suggesting the MSM and the pollsters are in cahoots, but I never expect the polls the MSM highlights to contradict them. I don't know if news outlets cherry pick the polls they "follow", but let's be honest....if they had focused on the Trafalgar group, they would have been much closer to reality, just like in 2016. I know....Trafalgar group had Trump winning, and he still might, but even if he loses, they had it more right than anyone else. But the MSM would never endorse a polling group that contradicted their precious narrative now, would they?

If Trump loses, I can't point to the horrible treatment he's received from the media without first pointing out his failure to manage the things he COULD control....his ego, his tweets, and his thin skin. Trump can be maddening at times, but I think he got it right way more than he got it wrong.

3

For me- the Polls have never been correct in the 45 years I've been voting. I didn't vote for Trump in 2016 because behavior he had, but after Economy, his success with , the Wall and the Peace accord I knew I had to support him this time. I didn't vote for his Morals I voted for government, I knew the D Party is corrupt on all levels.The impeachment farce has made me angry the Biden scandal has me furious, if we allow them to steal the election I am afraid we are doomed to the Lefts Chaos. We must support the President at all costs.

3

The polls are essentially corrupted and not reliable at all. I would not be surprised if Trump actually did slightly better in real numbers. Trumps biggest problem was MSM constant Trump bashing, always a misrepresentation and sometimes a complete fiction.

3

Polls are already known to be massively inaccurate, to the point of many being outright co-opted by the Leftist media.

And it tells me that the 8 trillion dollars that went missing under Obama bought at least 20 million fraudulent votes.

3

They've only half counted Cali and NY

3

I wasn't afraid to tell the truth. I LIE TO POLLSTERS! If I believe A the I tell pollsters I love B. In this upside down world, it seems to work.

3

Who gives a flying s*** about the popular vote? Only the coastal liberals. It's mutual masturbation.

Yes, if California secedes, Trump has the popular vote. I support the electoral college as it gives a slight edge to red rural states that otherwise don't have as much power in things like media/entertainment.

@Admin you cannot just take California out of the equation. Sure, if we did, Trump would have the popular vote. But then if we take away Texas, Biden has the popular vote again.

There are pros and cons to both systems. The electoral college is good in that it gives all votes a say, but then you basically put the voice of a couple of hundred thousand people equal to / over a couple of million. Coming from an ideology that continuously cries about LGBTQ+ rights because they are a minority of the population, you'd think they would prefer a majority vote. The Senate system is equally ridiculous, as you have 62 Senators representing a fourth of the US population in small states, and then 6 Senators representing a fourth of the US population in larger states.

@JacksonNought
Yeah ... interestingly that has something to do with why we are a REPUBLIC rather than a “Democracy”.
The Founding Fathers KNEW that sooner or later, there would get to be enough dumbf-cks out there to start voting in Free Lollipops as a Constitutional Right.

@Bay0Wulf Once again, a very important civics lesson everyone should remember. And to those who think the electoral college is obsolete, would you still hold that opinion if CA and NY were full of Republicans and a bunch of those red states were blue?

@Bay0Wulf False semantic point aside, the word republic derives from "common wealth," and as Trump's pandemic response has demonstrated, your party's platform and governance fail to meet that standard as well. We don't need "free lollipops," but there are things that everyone needs for survival and that serve the public good.

@Bay0Wulf as I said, pros and cons to both systems. If NY and CA were suddenly full of Republicans, would you start wishing for the abolition of the Electoral College?

@JacksonNought
What? Did you just simply repeat someone else’s question (plagiarized)?
Where did you derive the concept that I had any interest in abolishing the Electoral College regardless?
I’m against the concept of relying on a “Popular Vote”

Having lived in NY Metro for decades and California for a bit ... I became MORE Against the Concept of “Popular Vote”

@JacksonNought, @WilyRickWiles
Whatever WRW ... Your logic ... or startling lack thereof ... ceased to a amaze me awhile ago.

2

I'm a Democrat and I voted for Biden, but I never believed the pre-election polls. The media was massively wrong in 2016 and so I couldn't trust it. I honestly expected to see either another Trump victory or a hellish close call/"I demand a recount" situation like we're seeing now. I did not expect a clean Biden victory, no matter what the media said. You cannot trust the media.

As for Trump supporters, I voted that they simply believed that Trump was a better choice. I have spent the last 4 years trying to understand the Republican perspective. I think I'm a lot closer to understanding it and sympathizing than I was in 2016. I considered voting for Trump myself, if that tells you anything.

I do not buy into this "closet racist/bigot" crap. I roll my eyes at that kind of talk.

And who’s obviously bought and paid for by the Chinese Communist Party

@dd54 @Edgework
You both said "obvious," but I see no proof. Show me the proof and I'll regret my decision. (Too late now, as I already cast my ballot.) But until then, my answer to you is that I don't believe either of those things are true. They're rumors started to scare people away from voting for him. Just like when the liberals say Trump is a fascist, in Putin's pocket, that Russia rigged the last election, and that Trump has cognitive impairment. Are any of those things true?

As for his choice in running mate, I agree he chose her to appease certain crowds. That is annoying, but that alone doesn't sway me from a presidential decision. I don't think she's an ideal choice, but she's not a bad choice either. For me, there was no ideal choice this election. I chose who I thought could do a better job.

@dd54 I am not a healthcare worker, so your experience is different from mine there and more formal. I do have close, personal experience with family members of mine with dementia. I also have some minor experience with speech therapy, specifically shadowing a speech therapist who worked with stutterers. It's my understanding that Biden's speech stumbles are due to stuttering and not dementia. Again, I'm not an expert by any means and I can't diagnose anybody, but that was the rationale given to me and I believe it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. Maybe I fell for a liberal tactic. Time will tell.

For forgetting where he was, maybe I'm just misinformed here. I heard about a doctored video that made it look like Biden thought he was addressing the wrong city and that was proven to be a fake. Other than that, I don't know of any examples. -- It's too late now, as I already voted, but I might as well educate myself anyway. If you have some more examples for me, I'll look at them.

As of now, I think I made the best choice available. If it turns out I made a terrible mistake, maybe I'll vote for Donny if he runs again in 2024.

@dd54 I don't think that's true? I believe there is a history of his stuttering. But then again, maybe I misremember and maybe stuff I'm finding now on the internet is fake. -- I agree to disagree and I respect your POV on it. I'm willing to admit I'm wrong if time shows me more info.

2

My racist self-hating mom
is a single issue voter.

Which is why she voted for Trump.

She only got her citizenship through a divorce.

@TheMiddleWay

I am not sure if you are being serious.

Banning abortion and banning migrants were the only two topics Karen is willing to throw money at.

I thought this was obvious to everyone ?

2

Trump today accused the pollsters of “knowingly” getting it wrong. Whether it was knowingly or not, they missed the key points: a virtual dead heat, Republicans performing well in races for the House and Senate, no sign of the hotly anticipated Big Blue Wave, and Democratic failure to pick off key Republicans in South Carolina and Kentucky despite spending over $200-million on a few focused races.

Trump was also correct today in describing “election interference” as the powerful hand of “big money, big media and big tech.” Those forces have been arrayed against The President from the day he descended on the escalator at Trump Tower.

I can live with a Joe Biden presidency. My disappointment is in losing the final bulwark against the growing forces who believe America was never great, it’s history is shameful, it’s intentions dishonourable, it’s laws unjust, and its institutions and citizens racist. Make no mistake. The majority of the people who believe that are Democrats, progressives, woke activists, socialists, their followers, and their friends.

Donald Trump could have been a powerful counterforce, and to some degree, he was; but again and again he missed opportunities to control the agenda by constantly reacting — and often over-reacting — to his critics. Great conservative leaders like Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher pushed ahead, and rarely allowed themselves to be distracted.

If I were advising President Trump — and he has been often hampered by poor advice — I would plead with him to await the results and graciously concede. The more he resists at this point, the more difficult it will be for conservatives to reunite and begin working toward the 2022 midterm campaign and the next Presidential race.

GeeMac Level 8 Nov 5, 2020

Some good points there. I, too, can live with a Biden presidency. I won't like it, but I'm not going to have a fit of anger or a meltdown if he wins. That's for people on the other side. I'm saddened, though, that the people who tried to oust Trump via a completely fabricated story will never face justice if Biden takes office and appoints a a new AG. Our country deserves better.

"If I were advising President Trump — and he has been often hampered by poor advice — I would plead with him to await the results and graciously concede."

I disagree completely. He should never concede under the current circumstances. The numbers just do not add up. He is right to bring this contestation to its final level. He is there for us. Fight tooth and nail to stand for us and never ever give in until all avenues have been closed.

Trump didn’t get elected to roll over and play dead. He fights. That’s what we wanted from him.

  • Donald Trump could have been a powerful counterforce, and to some degree, he was; but again and again he missed opportunities to control the agenda by constantly reacting — and often over-reacting — to his critics.

Agree. This especially is a really good point, as well as one I'm torn on. Unfortunately, the deck was stacked against him since day one. He was mocked for throwing his hat in the ring, scoffed at as a potential candidate, demeaned for running, and then hated for winning.

Often times I disagreed with the way he went head to head with opposition with complete disregard for PC politics. Still, I also found him more genuine than any politician I've seen. I'd already been through 8 years of the growing progressive crowd. It was nice having someone that wasn't afraid to not give in to their crazy agenda, even if that meant he would be deemed "the bad guy" for doing so.

So, here's where I'm really torn... I actually don't see how there was any scenario where Trump would graciously concede to begin with. I'm not saying, after the legalities are followed through, he'll put up a fight if he loses. I'm just saying, so far, he's already playing his role in the left medias narrative.

Very early on, still around a month into the COVID lockdowns, MSM were already entertaining ideas of removing Trump by force. Since then, Trumps been asked numerous times including the debate if he would graciously concede. The idea that Biden might loose was only lightly touched upon, and when it was, it was a positive phrasing and agreeable response, and used for sound bytes between Trumps responses.

There already is the "good guy" and "bad guy". Trump was never going to be given the chance to step aside peacefully. So, part of me says why not let him go out fighting. We've been going through hell these last 4+ years. Slandered, silenced, and ignored. MSM can say what they like about Trump, but he really lifted up many Americans love for their country.

I've seen a lot of pro Trumpers and pro Americans already in the streets singing and declaring their love for Trump. Regardless of how this ends up playing out, I think it's nice that if the MSM won't acknowledge anything good about Trump, at least there are those that still find him and our country worth showing support for.

2

Why did you make the poll all about Trump?

Anyway... it would seem both are pretty much as popular as they are unpopular if you think Americans vote based on personalities.

I guess somebody has to ask us hard questions without us letting off steam.

2

Polls can be inaccurate. I do surveys/polls in my spare time sometimes in exchange for cryptos, and on multiple occasions I was able to do the same surveys over and over again, and when something like that can occur that leads me to believe surveys and polls are not reliable.

1

Its two (and more) tribes fighting for control of one territory.

America is dead.

1

Demo lemos can't think for themselves and look to MSM for their bearings as to how to vote and live. They are so afraid to find themselves on the other side of the street, scared to death of being looked at as a Racist and all the other PC nonsense. They then will not look smart, trendy and above all else "cool".

1

Biden tried to persuade the vanishing share of the electorate who are white swing voters rather than seeking to expand his base by mobilizing the diverse working class, young people, and progressives who make up much of the 100 million non-voters. Meanwhile, Trump did exactly that, drawing still predominantly white but more diverse working class non-voters who the Republicans seek to integrate into white supremacy and patriarchy, with his tally increasing from 2016 by 2 million non-whites and 1.5 million working class white women. This allowed him to cancel out Biden's advantage at the Texas border, for example, and contest it in Black communities in North Carolina. I expect the polls simply did not account for enough non-voters, or at least not the fact that only Trump would seek them out. The lesson is that the Democrats need a strategy for the working class--however, that is counter to their interests. Therefore, the larger lesson, if you believe they are complicit in forever divided government with a Republican Party that must be defeated, is an indictment of the Democratic Party and the US's political system.

Also, the popular vote is still being tallied.

Check out the analyses here: [nytimes.com]

@dd54 Got something to say?

@dd54 How profound.

@WilyRickWiles
WRW ... While this is actually one of your better posts ... neither you or it are overly profound ... ever.

@Bay0Wulf Hmph...

0

Trump got more votes than polls predicted for more than one reason. First, Trump supporters do not like polls done by telephone; because the questions in the polls are rigged and often include information that is inflammatory toward one political candidate. Therefore, Democrat Party voters are over-sampled. Second, I believe that companies that do political surveys over the phone engage in fake surveys. When I worked at one such company, I recognized the same voice from one evening to the next, which means that I was doing completely falsified surveys part of the time. And these surveys were done late at night (as though certain quotas needed to be met). Remember Robert Creamer? Two days before Robert Creamer first appeared wearing a Donald Duck costume at a Trump rally, I spouted off that "Donald Trump reminds me of a cartoon character. I like to call him Donald Duck," between phone calls. Everything said at a call center is recorded (even the mindless chatter between phone calls). And I wanted to see what would happen if I said something biased against Donald Trump. The fact that Robert Creamer showed up in the Donald Duck costume AFTER I made that outrageous statement is proof that Hillary Clinton was controlling the narrative of the surveys we were doing. And the fact that I interviewed a "Robert Cramer" in both Arizona and Illinois feeds my belief that polls are rigged. Data from falsified surveys causes poll inaccuracies. To show how nefarious polling companies are, just know that at the call center we also called up doctor's offices to renew free trade publications. Only on select projects did the script ask us to obtain the doctor's DEA number and email address. Of course, this information can be used to forge prescriptions. I quit that job in February of 2017 and and now retired.

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