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22 7

As today is the 50th year of "Earth Day" activities, I put together a little animation of the pace of population growth on this finite planet... along with some charts to suggest where we're headed.

Please check out [slug.com]

What do you think we should do to address population growth and its resulting impact on resource use to reach the year 2200 and beyond with limited civilizational pain?

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Admin 8 Apr 22
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12

“We’re so self-important. Everybody’s going to save something now. “Save the trees, save the bees, save the whales, save those snails.” And the greatest arrogance of all: save the planet. Save the planet, we don’t even know how to take care of ourselves yet. I’m tired of this shit. I’m tired of f-ing Earth Day. I’m tired of these self-righteous environmentalists, these white, bourgeois liberals who think the only thing wrong with this country is that there aren’t enough bicycle paths. People trying to make the world safe for Volvos. Besides, environmentalists don’t give a shit about the planet. Not in the abstract they don’t. You know what they’re interested in? A clean place to live. Their own habitat. They’re worried that some day in the future they might be personally inconvenienced. Narrow, unenlightened self-interest doesn’t impress me.

The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles … hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors, worldwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages … And we think some plastic bags and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet isn’t going anywhere. WE are!

We’re going away. Pack your shit, folks. We’re going away. And we won’t leave much of a trace, either. Maybe a little Styrofoam … The planet’ll be here and we’ll be long gone. Just another failed mutation. Just another closed-end biological mistake. An evolutionary cul-de-sac. The planet’ll shake us off like a bad case of fleas.

The planet will be here for a long, long, LONG time after we’re gone, and it will heal itself, it will cleanse itself, ’cause that’s what it does. It’s a self-correcting system. The air and the water will recover, the earth will be renewed. And if it’s true that plastic is not degradable, well, the planet will simply incorporate plastic into a new paradigm: the earth plus plastic. The earth doesn’t share our prejudice toward plastic. Plastic came out of the earth. The earth probably sees plastic as just another one of its children. Could be the only reason the earth allowed us to be spawned from it in the first place. It wanted plastic for itself. Didn’t know how to make it. Needed us. Could be the answer to our age-old egocentric philosophical question, “Why are we here?”

Plastic… asshole.”

― George Carlin

Why am I not happy to agree with pretty much all the points you made. I guess we are just walking through hoping where we're heading is worth the effort.

It isn't the planet people are trying to save. It's the planet as it is now, because it currently sustains human life. So "Save the Earth" is really "Save the People by Keeping The Earth Inhabitable"

10

If you think you know something, lets see if you know this. (What else do you think you know that is wrong?)

Earth Day: Not a Single Environmental Prediction of the Last 50 Years Has Come True.
Anthony Watts / April 22, 2019

Nicolas Loris, Bangor Daily News.

[wattsupwiththat.com]

8

I don't know of a single major power whose population is not shrinking (other than through immigration). The whole of Europe is shrinking demographicly. The US population only grows through immigration.

Fundementalist Islamic countries' populations are growing. Iran seems be the exception to this.

The neo-malthusians haven't been right yet. But there's always another generation to prophesy to.

You are right. The control freaks on the Left are completely wrong about everything, and can't admit it.

8

If you bother to look at replacement birthrates, the only place they are positive is India and Indonesia. Those two countries alone may not be enough to hold the Earth to 7.4 billion. For those of us who can do the math, it looks very much like the Earth will never again see that kind of human population.

Many people just assume that what someone told them years ago, or something they read is true. Do yourself a favor and look into it before posting.

You missed Nigeria, Angola, Egypt... pretty much most of Africa.
You also missed Brazil and other South American countries.
Not to mention Bangladesh and most of the Middle East.

@Hanno, true, if you want to split hairs, but they are too small to make up the World population loss, even in aggregate.

@TimTuolomne Spot on. But it's worth pointing out that Indonesia's fertility rate in 2017 was 2.34, and slightly lower now. Replacement rate is 2.1, they will get there in the not too distant future. In 1960 the fertility rate was almost 6.

India's fertility rate is 2.24 (2017). Barely above replacement. Also down from almost 6 in 1960.

This is reflected all around the developing world. Birth rates are trending downwards. In the EU the average fertility rate is 1.59, and even that is pumped up by recent immigrants. For ethnic Europeans it is even lower. At that rate you are talking about a 25% decline in population with each passing generation. The real trends in population growth around the world are masked, to some extent, by increases in life expectancy.

Some experts are saying that the bigger problem faced by the world is declining and ageing populations, and fertility rates that will continue to fall more rapidly than official projections.

For info on fertility rates over time for any country, just Google countryname fertility rate. It is eye opening

@TimTuolomne do you know the populations of these countries?
Nigeria:200 million
Bangladesh: 164 million
Egypt: 70 million
Angola only 20 million but predicted to reach 100 million before 2050.

These countries population growth will drop, but only after it caused a lot of misery.

@Hanno. Different point. The article contains the presumption that the growth of the World population needs to be constrained. The premise is wrong.

The countries you mentioned combined are about a third of the populations of India and Indonesia, so their contribution on balance of the rest of the World still well below replacement rates gives an aggregate below 2.1. Do the math.

7

This all reaks of ignorance, Malthuseanism and neo-luddites.

  1. Population growth is slowing, The problem is the islamic world realises its a numbers game. That is your problem

2 New Scientist article stated that Geothermal energy has 2 million times greater Theoretic energy potential than Solar and Wind combined. Do the maths then get back to me. Then add Hydro-electric and nuclear Fusion.

3 Environmentalist have consistently been wrong. The global warming models consistently over shoot, his is one of 4 major problems with it(This one due to confirmation bias or an intrinsic bias or both ).

4 Chinese Corona Virus could change all of this.

5
  1. Studies has shown the poor outcomes from single child households... best kids grow up in 2-3 child families with loving heterosexual parents.
  2. Tighten borders have never worked.
  3. A very large fraction of the world’s dry land can only grow food through low intensity pasture: goats, sheep, cattle, horses. Banning beef is means giving up on all those areas as food production sources.
  4. Only if you want to live in a Totalitarian state.
  5. That is what most of us need to do and let the guys with brains solve the issues.
  6. If you want to feel good and achieve nothing... do that.
  7. China just tried that... did not work so well.
  8. Easier to just educate people how dumb religion of any kind is.
  9. Yes!
  10. 10 million dollar question.
Hanno Level 8 Apr 22, 2020
4

The Earth is no more nor less "finite" than is the Universe itself. On a global scale the Earth is definitely not overpopulated. There are areas where human population is extremely highly concentrated and that is certainly problematic on a number of different levels.
Presently 55% of the global population are living in Urban areas - Large cities. Projections are that at the present rate of change that percentage will increase to 65 percent.Take large cites like Beijing, Tokyo, New Delhi, Mexico City, New York, Chicago, Atlanta. The density of population in those cities is so extreme as to make daily life itself oppressive and dangerously violent.
Those extremely large population centers do indeed create undue demand on natural resources like fresh water, clean air, and really a comfortable and polite space or buffer zone between persons.
I think it is worthy of note that those who are most vociferously alarmed about human population growth are ALL large city dwellers.

That point aside it is a statistical fact that resources of food (arable land) potable water, clean air are plentiful enough to support a lot more than the 700 billion people now living.

The current crisis of COVID-19 should demonstrate the reality that a "well established" and stable head count of human life is tenuous. Disease and natural disaster can (and eventually will IMHO) come along and reduce that number significantly.
Then there are man made disasters such as global war, incompetence in management of things like virulent microbes, land and water management etc. all of which can have a devastatingly negative impact on global population.

"Earth Day" like "May Day" and all other "special days" are all well and good because they temporarily fool people into believing that if they say the right words and make the right promises to "do better" the "Earth will be saved!" Hallelujah!

iThink Level 9 Apr 22, 2020

I think we did had the discussion about artificial fertiliser before and you did not believe.

It is unfortunately not a fact ( of any kind... I do not understand what you mean by statistical fact), that we can sustain 7 billion people with the resources we have indefinitely...

we are today fed by artificial fertiliser made from non-renewable finite phosphate rock and sulphate from coal, oil and a small fraction of geothermal Sulfur.
Eventual it will run out... it will be some decades before then and the issue (I believe) will have sorted it out by then.
So no cause for immediate alarm... however I always wince when people say we can sustain our current population forever.

3

being sold a bunch of bullshit 7 billion people can fit in the the state of texas and each one would have 1200 feet of room move around.....your are being lied to by the war mongers....china, russia the elite

love the optimism! Humble and enthusiastically suggest checking out this free movie released last night... so much of the belief of plentiful resources is based on wishful thinking. If you hate Al Gore, you'll love this movie! 🙂

@Admin IMO Michael Moore is just the same as al gore!

@Admin that was a good doc! he's eating crow!

3

It’s a documented fact that fertility rates fall in societies where women are well educated. Population increases are not an issue is any western liberal democracy, and haven’t been in decades.

Look at where fertility rates are highest. In the poorest, and least literate places on earth. The answer isn’t bringing the third world here. The answer is educated, freer societies.

The Slug content is typical left leaning sensationalism, which makes a series of unsupported assumptions: that population growth will continue unabated, that we are “running out of arable land”, water resources are “unsustainable”, and best of all, in progressive, superstitious language, “we’re running of of miracles”. 😂😂😂

Please.

Some pass me a Kleenex.

GeeMac Level 8 Apr 22, 2020
2

I was at the first Earth day. It was b then it is b now.

DAN_STL Level 7 Apr 23, 2020
2

"World’s population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century" [pewresearch.org]

Yep... the Swedish professor made a series of very good presentations where he showed the fastest decrease in population growth is in the countries with the highest population growth.
It gave me a reason to positive about the future again.

2

I don't think humans have the tools to turn earth into a second asteroid belt, or to destroy all life on earth. We can and might extinct our own and many other species, but I think that's the extent of the damage we might cause. I don't think that's the plan, but if it is? It would be part of God's plan. If no God, well, chance will continue taking it's chances. The earth and the universe will abide.

govols Level 8 Apr 22, 2020
1

The best way to control population is by creating wealth. As countries have adopted free market economic policies and become wealthier they start having fewer children. No coercion, restrictive measures, green agendas (how that has anything to do with population is beyond me), etc. is necessary. Promote individual freedom and personal wealth and it will take care of itself.

debb1eb Level 4 Apr 24, 2020

Increase in personal wealth can only be obtained by a small percentage of the population. Available resources are getting spread thinner as population increases. We, in the developed world, rely on millions of very low wage workers that are barely scraping by, to live at the wealth level we do. People who obtain wealth are of course very reluctant to let it go and, as a natural part of human behavior, try to increase it. The result today is that the wealthiest 0.1% control almost half of the entire world's wealth.

When I refer to create wealth I am not talking about the wealthy. Your point does not address the point I was trying to make. The more opportunities there are the more wealth individuals are able to create for themselves. This Forbes article better describes the point I was making.
[forbes.com]

1

I couldn't find which one (sorry) but Jordan Peterson said in one of his YouTube talks that in all likelihood we were going to top off and stabilize at about 9 billion (double check me on that), and that there was a good amount of evidence to support that. Have you seen anything that shows the trend will continue without significant change? I had assumed this problem would operate in a similar manner to a supply-demand curve.

Is there a reason people will choose not to have children due to declining space and food making it undesirable? I for one would not be inclined to make babies if I only had an equivalent of those Japanese sleeping pods to me and my partner.

1

I'm afraid this must be done...

Where's Wally?

govols Level 8 Apr 23, 2020
1

Just a vote please, let’s see if this concept works. The result will be an interesting.

Rick-A Level 8 Apr 22, 2020
1

If nothing's done, do you think we'll be living under Sharia law?

Xtra Level 8 Apr 22, 2020

Umm, yes, but I don’t know how many of us will be allowed to live. 😜

0

I support a license to parent. If we cannot slow growth being honest, then clandestine measures are necessary. Man has become enemies with earth

0

Allow Capitalism to provide growth and prosperity to 3rd world nations so they no longer need the large families required to garentee survival and support in later life.

0

None of the above. We are a natural part of the earth, and as with all other life, the product of aeons of evolution. Those behaviors that helped us to survive in small groups worked, but some of them have turned deadly in large groups. As the song from the musical Oklahoma says, we are just "do'in what comes naturally". We apparently have not been able to adjust our behaviors to adapt to the new environment of large groups. Much of our behaviors are genetically programmed into us and this population explosion has happened much to rapidly for them to change. We have placed ourselves in a position where external pressures will make the necessary adjustments.

Pand0ro Level 7 May 28, 2020
0

Did not vote as this is one of the more complex issues that we all face, an issue in which there is no simplified solution that would work for everyone (let alone everyone accepting such). Touchy subject, alot of folks won't care to hear opinions or weigh in on any evidence that might contradict their viewpoint on the matter. I'm inclined to agree with more women utilizing birth control methods, but the religious out there would have none of that though, so that probably wouldn't be good enough. Secure borders are a good idea, but I don't see how that would have much meaningful results in curbing overpopulation, as life would go on (sex included) for those living in their respective country.

Complex issue, getting a majority of the population to go along with any ideas on that is the trick, so looks like nothing much is going to change anytime soon. At times I honestly think humanity will wipe itself out (or at least a good portion of humanity anyway), not due to overpopulation being a problem but rather via nuclear warfare...

0

Humans on earth, correspond to virus and host. Either the host kills the invading species, or the virus takes over the body and by doing so kills itself.

That's the reality we cannot escape

Lt-JW Level 8 Apr 22, 2020

You don’t think humans can act as beneficial gut bacteria living in a symbiotic relationship with its host?

Earth is not trying to kill us. And we cannot kill the earth... we can just make it a miserable (sick) place for ourselves.

@Hanno or we can make tolerable for all majority rules.....

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