So far it has not been that deadly, current estimates are its about 2 1/2 times as bad as the flu at its worst. Not the end of the world. Its really bad for the old who have existing illness.

Its a matter of the right to voluntary acceptance or risk. Wanting to eliminate All Risk is the Vice of SJWs and soccer mom anti-vaxer Karen's. We have done a lot to mitigate transmission but the results only slow the virus down. COVID-19 is surprisingly contagious and all most all recover from it.

So far we have around 100000 deaths. At 0.25% death rate would put the maximum at 875000. I don't think we will reach that but 100000 or more deaths by November is not unrealistic. We can't just hide out for months and do nothing without consequences, that is scored by the economy. We would have to shut down far more than we did to stop COVID-19. Doing that would cause food shortages and collapse of basic services.

Considering the risk I advocate for immediate opening up with safety measures. Yes more will die but that's going to happen no matter what. The term "second wave' will likely be a politically weaponized term even though it is technically not true in aggregate.

A black swan that could change this is if it mutates into something much more deadly. And it is muting a lot, its an RNA virus, that's what they do. The only way I can put odds on that is the longer it does not happen the lower the chances are.

I can see no reason why it will just suddenly stop short of mass vaccination.